By Shawn Gaynor
Jan. 26 (GNT) — Efforts to promote a large-scale shift away from fossil fuels are often met with skepticism because of the high price tag associated with alternative energy generation. But a new report suggests that the costs of avoiding the worst effects of climate change are actually reasonable.
Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy, released Jan. 26 by McKinsey & Company, concludes that global greenhouse-gas emissions could be reduced by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, the level scientists say is necessary to keep global warming below the critical 2 degree C rise.
The McKinsey study, backed by an assortment of industrial and environmental partners ranging from energy giant Shell, to the crusading World Wildlife Fund, estimates the cost achieving these reductions are between 0.2 and 0.5 percent of global Gross Domestic Product. That compares with Lord Stern’s estimated cost of not taking action on greenhouse gas emissions of between five and 20 percent of global GDP.
The most comprehensive study of its kind, it identifies three main sectors critical to meeting CO2 emissions reduction goals. The study recommends a dramatic and immediate move away from carbon-based electricity generation towards renewable energy, halting deforestation and investing massively in reforestation, and an increase in everyday energy efficiency by 25 percent.
“The figures show clearly that not only can we move to a low carbon economy, but that the costs are manageable. Adopting these measures will be a major step towards avoiding the worst effects of climate change,” said WWF Director General James Leape.
The study goes on to identify in detail over 200 opportunities for significant emissions reductions over the next two decades. While the cost of implementation is manageable, amounting to a roughly a half of trillion dollars in worldwide investment each year, the report warns that individual sectors and policy makers will face huge implementation challenges.
“The timing of action is though critical: Delays are likely to mean missing this two degrees Celsius target. Capturing the full abatement potential requires starting promptly in 2010,” the study warns. “For every year of delay, the expected peak level of atmospheric GHG concentration will rise by an extra five parts per million (ppm) and a 10-year delay would mean a target of 550 ppm would be difficult to achieve.”
At levels this high, experts agree that the more drastic impacts of climate change will occur, a point stressed recently by several top global warming experts.
Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Inter governmental panel on Climate Change, speaking to the opening of The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Poznan last December outlined a laundry list of risks the world faces after a global temperature increase of just a few degrees.
Pachauri stated that a temperature rise of over two degrees Celsius could lead to the extinction of 20 to 30 percent of all species on Earth.
Humanity, according to Pachauri, would face a loss of half of Africa’s agricultural base, up to a half of billion people who depend on water from the Himalayan glaciers would face water shortages, and low-lying coastal areas and islands would be consumed by rising sea leaves.
“If global mean temperature increase is to be stabilized between 2.0-2.4°C, then CO2 emissions must peak by 2015,” stressed Pachauri, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for the IPCC’s groundbreaking reports linking climate change to industrial emissions, and predicting its effects at various levels of emission.
Climate change expert and NASA scientist James Hansen and his wife, Anniek, recently echoed Pachauri in a letter sent to Barack and Michelle Obama before the inauguration. In the letter the Hansens stress that the world has only four years left before inaction will lead to a climate change disaster.
The letter urged the Obamas, “It is still feasible to avert climate disasters, but only if policies are consistent with what science indicates to be required.”
The letter states the safe limits for the greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is “no more than 350 ppm, probably less. Pre-industrial carbon dioxide amount was 280 ppm.”
Current carbon dioxide levels are above 380 ppm and rising at an accelerating pace.
The letter goes on to outline some of the steps recommended for avoiding the worst case scenarios associated with climate change, including a move swiftly away from coal-based electricity generation.
And to an extent, the new Obama administration has shown a willingness to listen, vowing to create a green collar economy with the economic bailout, and reopening the issue of fleet-wide fuel efficiency increases for automakers, a measure long opposed by the Bush administration.
But the problem is a global one, and policy leaders will have to bridge long held differences at the next meeting of the UNCCC to be held later this year in Copenhagen.
The meeting is expected to result in a new climate change treaty to replace to Kyoto Protocol.
“When the world’s leaders meet in Copenhagen in December to agree a global deal on climate change, they will have no excuse for inaction,” said Mr. Leape.
“The world will be watching and expecting those leaders to adopt measures which will lead to a low-carbon economy, giving a fighting chance of keeping climate change below the crucial 2°C level.”
Rebecca Bowe contributed to this report.
GreenNewsToday.org